Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
